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MARCH 27, 2025 |
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Harvard Kennedy School | | | |
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The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the Financial District in New York City on March 4, 2025. (Photo by Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images) | | |
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Public Finance |
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Tariffs and economic uncertainty could lead to a recession |
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The Trump administration’s tariff policy and the broader conditions of the U.S. economy are increasing worries about a recession, Professor Jeffrey Frankel says in a Harvard Gazette conversation. Frankel lays out five factors that could potentially contribute to a recession: a trade war, a stock market crash, major cuts in government spending, a fiscal crisis due to a government shutdown or other factors, and an increase in perceptions of risk. “Risk is increasing because what Trump has done on tariffs and on government spending has been so erratic,” Frankel says. “The uncertainty itself has a negative effect.”
See also: Why is President Trump interested in the Panama Canal? Professor Ricardo Hausmann discusses the economic and political factors.
Learn more about Public Finance at HKS » | | |
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Decision Making & Negotiation |
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To decrease polarization and build trust, get vulnerable |
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“If you want to build trust in disagreement, share your personal story,” says Associate Professor Julia Minson in a new video on building trust to decrease polarization. “We need to abandon the idea that the goal is to win the argument with the most impressive stat.” Minson studies the psychology of disagreement. Her research has shown that when people share personal narratives, they are seen as more trustworthy than people who share data. It’s not enough, Minson says, for a politician to tell an anecdote about a constituent. To really gain trust, people need to share personal narratives because that is how they demonstrate transparency and vulnerability. “You often hear politicians on the campaign trail talking about, you know, ‘I met a voter in Ohio,’” Minson says. “In our studies, that does not work as well because that does not reveal the vulnerability of the politician. That reveals the vulnerability of the voter in Ohio.”
Also see: Professor Robert Putnam in the Harvard Gazette and at a recent John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at the Institute of Politics on his ideas about social capital and “Bowling Alone.”
Learn more about Decision Making & Negotiation at HKS » | | |
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Public Leadership & Management |
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How organizations can move beyond bureaucracy |
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Vulnerable citizens disproportionally carry the the burden of red tape, but city governments and other organizations can break through bureaucratic obstacles by looking to innovation. “Bureaucracy is not so much a system of rules; it is a system of values,” says HKS faculty member Jorrit de Jong in a recent conversation. At Harvard, de Jong leads research and training for mayors and other leaders so that they can improve public service delivery and run their organizations more effectively. “Bureaucratic dysfunction occurs when the system that we've created ceases to produce the value that we wanted out of it,” de Jong explains. Organizations, he says, can deal with bureaucratic dysfunction by diagnosing problems carefully and focusing on user experience, organizational structure, culture, and statecraft.
Learn more about Public Leadership & Management at HKS » | | |
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Democracy & Governance |
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HKS analysts on the role of Congress and the courts |
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In the past two months, President Trump has signed close to 100 executive orders, many of which have been challenged in court for exceeding his constitutional authority. So what responsibilities do the other branches of government have to rein in the power of the executive? In a new episode of PolicyCast, Professor Maya Sen discusses the role of the Supreme Court and Congress in checking presidential powers. “Congress has to be in the background standing up for constitutional norms,” she says. “We’re not seeing a ton of objection to what Trump is doing from Congress.” Sen explains that “people want Congress to be a vocal participant in our framework of constitutional governance.” Assistant Professor Ben Schneer also discussed the oversight role of Congress in a recent conversation. Schneer says, “There have been moments where presidents tested the limits of executive power: Lincoln suspending habeas corpus, Jackson removing the deposits from the Bank of the United States, Nixon initially refusing to turn over the Watergate tapes. But in each case Congress reasserted itself one way or the other.” Today, however, “Congress doesn’t yet have the will or the votes … . So, the outcome so far has just been inaction.”
Learn more about Democracy & Governance at HKS » | | |
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